China Set to Continue Raising Rates: Experts

Published: Monday, 22 Nov 2010 2:55 AM ET

By: CNBC.com With Reuters

China is expected to to continue its tightening stance in the next few months as it aims to tame rising price pressures in the country, various analysts told CNBC on Monday.

Beijing will likely hike interest rates by 50 basis points and banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 75 basis points before the Lunar New Year in February 2011, Luca Silipo, chief economist at Natixis told the network.

On Friday, China's central bank raised the RRR by half a point to a record high of 18.5 percent — a move that weighed on the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite on Monday.

"We can understand the worries of residents about the relatively quick rise in food prices and other daily necessities," according to a statement released Monday by the National Development and Reform Commission, China's economic planning agency. "But we also have the confidence to say that our country has the capacity and conditions to keep overall prices at a stable level."

The statement was released as the Chinese government gave more details on its measures to contain inflation, including scrapping road tolls for vehicles carrying fresh produce.

"It's actually a smart move. A lot of people in China are still too unbearably poor...It's smart to put a short-term price cap on food so these people can eat," said Shaun Rein, MD of China Market Research Group, adding that the measures are temporary and will likely last one to two months.

Food is currently the primary concern of policymakers, as the price of food has risen 10.1 percent in the year to October.

Strengthening the Yuan

China should consider widening the yuan's trading band and quicken the pace of currency reform to help tame imported inflation, Li Daokui, a central bank adviser said in published remarks on Monday.

However, an analyst highlighted that the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing plan would work against a stronger yuan.

"Bernanke is enabling America's addiction to debt and is also making it difficult for the Chinese to appreciate the renminbi. They're going to continue to appreciate, but I think it's not going to be as fast now because of Bernanke," Rein said.

(Source: CNBC: Reuters contributed to this report)

Weekly market commentary - 19112010

Summary of things happened last week

• US DJ index corrected from the high and rebounded to stay above 11,100 level.
• China Shanghai index plunged about 10% in a week.
• Europe and Asian markets affected, corrected and rebounded.
• Commodities hit 2yrs high and corrected, Crude oil plunged from USD88/barrel to USD81/barrel. Others like energy, metal and agricultures futures fall into correction.

Negative news

• China CPI shot up to 4.4%, causing china government further implementation to control overheating economy like increased the interest rate and raised 50 basis point reserve rate. China is reacting more aggressively to slowing down the economy to avoid bubble burst.
• Europe sovereign debt worry happening on Irish, Greece and Portugal became more serious, impact the confidence.
• Expensive commodities price may bring higher CPI to impact the economy recovery strength.

Positive news

• With effective economy control and rules implementation in China, it may be short term pain, but will definitely benefit the long term economy growth.
• Ease of worry on Europe sovereign dedt worry as good progressive action taken by Irish, as well as the support from EU members/fund.
• Commodities prices corrected to a more acceptable levels align with current economy situation.
• Although the commodities plunged corrected from 5%-10%, it only bring small impact to the global markets - minor/healthy correction.

Recommendation/things may happen in coming weeks

• Market may continue moving sideway to minor correction due to the uncertainties happen globally.
• Japan market looks positive as it may attract the inflow of hot money from the Asian region.
• Current market correction may end before mid December when most of the commodities price look attractive and cheap again, keep an eye on the commodities price. For instance, if crude oil drop towards USD70-75 level, which is benefiting the economy recovery path, the market may rebound and continue the uptrend again.
• Most of the countries are and must do the hard work to grow the economy in order not to fall into double dip recession, more solutions may announce in coming weeks or months.

Hedging - The flexibility to enhance investment returns and protect your investment portfolio

Unpredictable situation in financial market

As far as the market is concerned, sometimes it's just very unpredictable due to a lot of others unforceen circumstances. The market may change direction suddenly to react according to global news such as raise in interest rate, higher inflation data reported, higher unemployment rate, and others important ecconomy data. Some of the main influencers like weather may directly affect the commodities production like production disruption due to bad weather, new financial control implementation by the governments like tightening the borrowing to control hot money bubble, and the organizations' news like financial reporting and merger & acquisition news.

Options available in financial market investment

In general, the most common investment options are stock market, derivatives and forex. These are where the more experience financial traders preferred. Ideally, different investment tools have its individual characteristic that cater for different investment needs. All types of investment carry risk and return. These are some common professional preferences:

• Stock market - Invest in shares
• Derivatives - Investment in resources/commodities like crude oil, copper, crude palm oil.
• Forex - Invest in currency trading

SWOT analysis dictate the right investment product

In order to determine right investment option to individual, you have to understand yourself detail enough about the main objective of the investment, as well as the risk factor you can accommodate. It is easy, you are recommended to perform a SWOT analysis about yourself to derive your Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threats. From there, you choose the perfect investment option which suit you the most, and further explore and focus into that area. I strongly believe it will definitely benefit you and bring you the best rewards.

Hedging - Flexibility to enhance investment returns and achieve protection against investment portfolio

It is best to always remind yourself that what is the main purpose of your investment? and why limit yourself to the particular investment tool? Since there are so many options in financial investment, you are recommended to open up for more flexibility in order to enhance the investment returns and achieve protection against your investment portfolio at the same time. Thus, it is always good to explore and understand all the products available and to know individual characteristics better. Hedging - Is one of the best solution to protect your investment returns. For instance, you can choose to Short or Long the Derivatives and Forex currency pair when there is a sudden change of market direction which is unpredictable.

24hrs trades to avoid market crash on the next open trading day

Most of the time, there are many things happen globally like bad news announce in Europe and US which causing the market collapse, it directly bring the negative impact to the next open trading day in Asian markets. When Asian markets open, most of it directly gap down and it may be too late to react accordingly. For instance, there are options available to Short the commodities like crude oil, soyoil if the commodities are collapse. At the same time, you may Long the forex currency pair USD if the economy news are good during US market trading time since Forex is 24hrs open shop! This may make you gain the profit at night to cover some of the losses in shares market when the shares open gapping down the next day. Thus, the more you understand about the financial market, the safer and excited you feel. That's the reason people always say open up for more flexibility!

美國印鈔機開OT熱錢流竄,榮景隨時變泡影

美國印鈔機開OT熱錢流竄 榮景隨時變泡影

單聽“量化寬鬆貨幣政策”（Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy，QE2），這麼技術的名詞，沒有多少人會興趣研究下去；但如何告訴你，它的意思其實就是指政府“無中生有的印鈔票”，是否會引起你的好奇心？

量化寬鬆貨幣政策是近期國內外，尤其新興國家的熱門課題之一。

美國聯邦儲備局在11月3日，宣佈第二輪的量化寬鬆政策（簡稱QE2），讓全球尤其新興國家嘩然。

印鈔票，有什麼大不了？為何不能隨意增印鈔票？美國此舉，對亞洲新興國家如大馬，又有什麼影響？

馬股在11月10日寫下閉市新高，牛氣十足。沒錢的市井小民被人追款時最愛說的其中一句話是：你以為我印鈔票的嗎？

是的，在一般人的印象中，沒錢就去印鈔票，有了花花綠綠的鈔票后就等于“有錢了”！

可是，對一個國家而言，鈔票不能隨便印，一個國家大量且憑空印鈔票的后果，將導致本國貨幣貶值。

若增印的鈔票是美元，這個影響可就大了…

多了的美元成為四處流竄的熱錢，例如大馬股市、房市、匯市因而“榮景”再現，由于這只是短期炒作資金，一旦大幅撤離，榮景隨時變泡影！

美元作為全球認可且流通的國際貨幣，美國擁有印鈔票的后台，但正因為美元現有地位和影響力，也是QE2推出后，引起各國恐慌的原因。

經濟學家白文春告訴《中國報》，以前以黃金為本位貨幣時，各國所印的鈔票數量是以黃金為標準，意即有多少黃金，才能印多少鈔票。

印越多 貶越快

他指出，自從美元取代黃金成為國際本位貨幣，成為國際流通的標準貨幣和儲備單位，加上擁有龐大的消費市場作后盾，美國自是有能力“印鈔票”。

“美國是規模龐大的消費國，對外採購仍使用美元支付，商家不會不買賬。”

全球約63%的外匯儲備是美元，或以美元計價。

白文春指出，這只是有數據證實的比重，基于世界銀行未能歸類一些資產的匯價，因此若包括這些未歸類資產，全球美元儲備比重可能達70%。

綜合這些因素，美國聯儲局不畏懼的推出QE2，美元也未因增印鈔票而大幅度暴跌。

所謂暴跌，是指在2至3天內，貨幣匯率重挫20%至30%。

換作是大馬，就不能如此大開印鈔機了。

因為令吉非國際通用貨幣，既不在國際流通，也沒有國家會收、會以令吉為儲備金。

“在這情況下，國行若印越多鈔票，令吉貶值只會更快。”

熱錢興風作浪 虎視眈眈短期公債

鈔票不斷增加，市場上的錢如此多，該怎么花、怎么用？小市民若有余錢，一般會放到高回酬的

投資或儲蓄產品上。

大規模、有組織的投資機構或基金也不例外。

包括大馬在內的新興國家，經濟前景看俏、利率相對高，更是投資者垂涎的眼中肥羊，尤其是投機客。

因此，美國增印鈔票，也就是增加銀行體系的流動性（liquidity）后，這些熱錢瞄準的市場，離不開新興國家。

白文春指出，源自美國的游資氾濫，勢將流向區域國家。

“但這些游資，大部分偏好投資在政府短期債券，因為容易投資且可以很快脫手。”

換言之，熱錢的流入將影響公債價格，壓低回酬。

股市牛氣衝天寫新高

除了短期公債，股市是另一個可以迅速牟利的市場，例如向來受海內外基金青睞的藍籌股。

白文春指出，股市表現與經濟前景唇齒相依，股市一般隨著經濟前景向好走俏。

“如今宏觀經濟前景黯淡，明年經濟或走下坡，股市一般應隨之黯淡。”

熱錢帶動股市走高，部分投資者固然樂見其成，但非投資者或擔心，這股並非由基本面帶動的牛氣，或加劇通脹壓力。

儘管大馬利率（隔夜官方利率為2.75%）仍處于低水平，但比起接近零利率的日本（0至0.1%）和美國（0至0.25%），我國利率相對仍高。

他說，一旦美國及日本的避險基金流入大馬，除了投資回酬，還是可賺取可觀匯差收益。

事實上，在美國宣佈QE2的一週后，馬股市牛氣十足，在11月9日衝上1526.53點新高，及11月10

日攀上1528點馬股有史以來最高閉市紀錄！

引發資產升值

美國希望美元貶值，迫使人民幣、日圓及歐元等貨幣升值。聯昌投資銀行區域經濟分析主管李興裕指出，QE2以及亞洲相對仍寬鬆的貨幣政策，兩者加起來的影響，或引發新一輪的資產升值。

“這是因為投資者借取低利率貸款，投資在高回酬資產，這包括房地產、黃金、其他原產品及貨幣。”

黃金價格今年迄今已升值20%，銀價今年亦勁漲40%。新興國家貨幣更是被推升，引發貨幣大戰的隱憂。

白文春認為，由于熱錢偏好快及容易轉手的資產，因此熱錢的湧入，不會直接推高本地房地產價格。

他指出，國行不升息，使現有利率企在低水平，此舉或吸引有心者向銀行借貸購買資產，因此才引起房地產泡沫隱憂。

“這也是為什么，國行限制購買第三間屋子貸款額，不能超過屋價的70%。”

貨幣戰硝煙重 不升息免惹熱錢

中國經濟學家謝國忠說，全球貨幣戰爭未爆發，硝煙的味道已到處彌漫。

白文春不諱認，全球確實存有貨幣戰的可能。

“熱錢流入將對該國貨幣產生需求，進而使貨幣升值，若央行不進場干預，只會讓貨幣繼續升值。

升值太快，只會加劇吸引更多游資流入。”

但所有政策都有其關聯性，以馬幣為例，若國家銀行進場干預令吉升勢，即買進外國貨幣、賣出令吉的干預，將變相增加市場上的令吉供應。

他說，為吸納這些市場上的令吉，國行一般會發行更多短期債券，且不會升息，以免擴大（與美國、日本的）利差，導致更多熱錢湧入。

綜觀海外，歐元區未跟進，日本卻趕在聯儲局之前啟動量化寬鬆政策，中國則開始喊話表達不滿。

至于其他國家，一般透過干預貨幣，或落實預扣稅（Withholding Tax），來抑制貨幣升值。

央行進場干預貨幣走勢的舉措，是挑起貨幣戰的導火線之一。

迄今，“貨幣戰”還沒有權威性的定義，但一般是指一個國家憑藉其強大的經濟和金融實力，利

用貨幣和匯率政策，從經濟上打擊競爭對手、取得貿易優勢。

為下一輪危機埋禍根

綜合國內外經濟學家意見，美國聯邦儲備局（FED，簡稱聯儲局）啟動第二輪量化寬鬆政策，或為下一輪的金融危機埋下禍根！

聯儲局在11月3日推出QE2，將注資6000億美元（1兆8600萬令吉），在2011年第二季之前購買國債，藉此刺激企業和民眾貸款，來創造就業和活絡經濟。

中國知名經濟學家謝國忠指出，量化寬鬆政策是各國在貨幣戰爭的武器，大家競相印鈔票的后果，世界末日或不遠矣。

他認為，美國希望美元貶值，並迫使人民幣、日圓及歐元等貨幣升值，以解決目前自身的經濟難題。

問題是，世界各國目前的經濟也未出現明顯復甦，當然選擇出手阻升本國貨幣。

此舉不僅無法解決美國當前的經濟困境，更可能造成難以收拾的通貨膨脹。

謝國忠認為，美國貨幣寬鬆是個“死棋”！全球經濟不穩定就是因為美國在大量印鈔票，以致2012年時，全球可能將再次出現全球式的金融危機。

世銀促管制資本

大量熱錢湧入誘發亞洲資產泡沫，世界銀行呼籲，亞洲國家或需轉向資金管制，以遏止資本泡沫。

世銀執行董事英德拉瓦蒂指出，美國QE2正威脅並誘發亞洲資產泡沫，亞洲有必要恢復資本管制。

但她指出，這些管制措施應是暫時且具有目標的，以遏制這些流動性的湧現。
財金術語

■量化寬鬆政策

量化寬鬆是一種貨幣政策，由中央銀行通過公開市場操作以提高貨幣供應，可視之為“無中生有”創造出指定金額的貨幣，也被簡化形容為間接增印鈔票。

操作方式是央行通過公開市場購入證券等，使銀行在央行開設的結算戶口內的資金增加，為銀行體系注入新的流通性。

量化寬鬆中的“量化”，是指將會創造指定金額的貨幣；“寬鬆”則指減低銀行的資金壓力。

央行向銀行體系增加流動性后，銀行將坐擁大量資金，但只能賺取低利息。

如此一來，銀行的放款意願或更高以賺取回收益，進而紓緩市場的資金壓力。

■何謂本位貨幣

所謂本位貨幣，是一國貨幣制度規定的標準貨幣。

國際本位貨幣是指在國際上，佔據中心貨幣地位、可自由兌換的貨幣。

首先，這項貨幣必須能在全球自由兌換；其次，是能充當國際商品的價值或價格標準，成為各種貨幣匯率計算的中心。

黃金就曾是國際本位貨幣之一。

以黃金為本位時，黃金是整個國際貨幣體系的貨幣標準，使各國貨幣間及進出口物品間，存在一定的比價關係，那時美元的擴張及發行存在較大的約束，不能想印多少就多少。

(Source: Chinapress.com.my, 13th Nov 2010)

Successful Investor's 4 Important Characteristics

In order to stay and grow in the financial market, there are few important points required to be applied. To make money from the market is not a very difficult task, or probably I can describe it as it is not easy to loss money to the market as well. To a certain extent, win or lose is not that important. The question here is how to maintain growing in the market. To be a successful investor, he/she has to maintain the performance and able to protect the profit gained from the market.

There are 4 main factors which could determine the performance of an investor, there are CASH, RIGHT PERCEPTION, PATIENCE, and LUCK.

CASH:
Cash is the main resources, the first model we needed to start venture into financial market. With the model/capital we have, we can design and strategise the game we wish to be. It can be a speculateive play, short-term, mid-term, or long term investment objective, or probably buy and hold strategy.

RIGHT PERCEPTION:
With the right perception we acquired such as the correct mind-set, knowledges and skills, we should be able to perform well in the market. Of course that require time to pick up the skills and experience, which is also call the "tuition fee for the market". But no worry, that's because I strongly believe in "hard work pays".

PATIENCE:
Absolutely! Patience is very important! The main reason we require this characteristic is because most of the losers have actually gave up after losing money to the market, that's the reason they are called "losers". As mentioned earlier, to make money from the market is not difficult. The question is how to keep the profit and let it grow again? If you understand the financial market, you will find the right timing to trade is actually limited, says about 30% of 365days time. Thus, you are always recommended to stay calm and patient waiting for the perfect timing to ensure the highest ROI rewards!

LUCK:
Lastly, when you have applied all the top 3 key factors, what you need to do is to cross your fingers and pray hard. It is same in life, full of uncertainties and surprises happening in the market. Just be conscious and competent enough to react according to the situation!

美啟動次輪量化寬鬆政策,後年或再爆金融危機

美啟動次輪量化寬鬆政策, 後年或再爆金融危機

(紐約8日訊）美國聯邦儲備局（FED，簡稱聯儲局）啟動第二輪量化寬鬆政策，或為下一輪的金融危機埋下禍根！

簡單來說，量化寬鬆政策就是指大量印鈔票。

中國知名經濟學家謝國忠認為，美國希望美元貶值，並迫使人民幣、日圓及歐元等貨幣升值，以解決目前自身的經濟難題，但問題是世界各國目前經濟也未出現明顯復甦，當然選擇出手阻升本幣。

此舉不僅無法解決美國當前的經濟困境，更可能造成難以收拾的通貨膨脹。
“如果美元貶值仍救不了美國出口，量化寬鬆就只會導致通脹，造成石油價格飆升，整個國家將失去穩定。”

謝國忠認為，美國貨幣寬鬆是個“死棋”！

國債市場率先崩潰

世界經濟不穩定就是因為美國在大量印制鈔票，以致2012年時，全球可能將再次出現全球式的金融危機。

“美國已將利率降到零，讓財政赤字達國內生產總值的10%，這是一個頗具震懾力的‘凱因斯式政策’ ，然而經過數季后，經濟並未恢复，失業率也未見改善，刺激政策可說是項失敗。”

謝國忠提出警告，世界將在2012年進入另一場危機，美國國債市場將率先崩潰，美元的價值將隨著飆升的貨幣供應量和通脹蒸發，最后難逃崩潰命運。

美聯儲反駁：沒製造通脹

針對美國聯儲局再次大量購買美國國債，引起了市場的憂慮及大力反彈，該局主席柏南奇回應說：“我們並沒有在製造通脹！”

他說，這種措施不過是用不同工具執行的有效及傳統的貨幣政策。

柏南奇解釋說：“我們不是在製造通脹，我已經說過我們並不是要把通脹率提升到超越正常的水平來對經濟產生影響，由于聯儲局對于使命的兩方面有著對等的承諾，它也需避免物價下降到不符合物價穩定的水平。”

他說，當前經濟增長乏力、在物價壓力越來越弱的環境中，採取更激進的政策或可以有助改善狀況。

各國擔憂

聯儲局此次舉措已引起世界各國擔憂，因為它將給某些貨幣施加對美元升值的壓力。
柏南奇是在亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行舉辦的一場活動期間與格林斯潘等人進行小組討論時，如是發表的。

小組討論回顧了美聯儲的歷史，對過去一個世紀聯儲局應對多種劇變時做得成功與否進行了評價。

上週三，負責設定利率的聯邦公開市場委員會（Federal Open Market Committee）說，將在截至明年年中的這段時間收購6000億美元（1兆8528億令吉）的較長期美國國債。

另外還將利用所持抵押貸款類證券到期時收到的賬款，買入約3000億美元（約9264億令吉）的國債。

凱因斯式政策像類固醇

有專家認為，凱因斯式的政策就很像是類固醇，必要時候該用但不可濫用，因為它最大的一個副作用就是造成財赤及負債。

政府支出增加需要更多財源，但偏偏在經濟不景氣時，政府的稅收偏偏比平常還少，政府擴大支出的財源常來自舉債。

但政府借的債將來可是要還息的，因此此政策就會對未來造成負擔，當凱因斯的政策被用太多后，未來的政府財政就會出現很大困難。

最終或許必須通過加稅、縮減支出，使政府無法做該做的事，或以通貨膨脹方式來降低實質負債。

所以政府在採用凱因斯政策之前，必須要仔細思考所需承擔的負債及還款能力。

歐美寬鬆貨幣恐導致中國泡沫

歐美國家正在執行寬鬆貨幣政策，但泡沫最后恐危及中國市場！

北京大學國家發展研究院教授黃益平6日在財新峰會上表示，為應對發達國家貨幣超發所引發的泡沫引向中國，中國應當在短期內加強資本管制。

他說，世界經濟可能不會回到金融危機前的狀態，目前大多數國家財政狀況都已經惡化，今年世界上可能會有40%以上的國家財政赤字超過國內生產總值的10%。

美國及英國公共債務佔國內生產總值比例已經超過90%，日本更是超過200%，這是一個很嚴重的狀況。

黃益平表示，目前歐、美、日部分中央銀行執行寬鬆的貨幣政策，尤其是聯儲局的寬鬆貨幣政策

政策，更意味著世界經濟在未來一段時間內會進入新狀態。

這或導致出現金融危機后第一次經濟增長的下降，伴隨而來的就是通脹壓力的上升。

“如此多的貨幣肯定會製造泡沫，泡沫不會出現在美國，新興市場國家貨幣升值的潛力比較大，利率比較高，經濟增長的勢頭比較猛，所以中國可能就首當其沖。

為了避免這些泡沫引向中國，黃益平認為人民幣要緩步升值，升值后還要加息，控制國內資產以避免投機行為，然后管制資本項目，包括嚴格調查熱錢進來的途徑及限制短期資本的流動。

(Source: China Press dotcom, 8th Nov 2010)

Daily market commentary - 08112010

Commodities & Speculative Game

As commented on 7th nov 2010, I have recommended to focus on commodities stocks like plantation, oil & gas, steel industry, and some of the hidden jewels undervalue stocks like KFIMA, FIMACORP, MFLOUR.

As of todays closing, KLCI is closed at ard 1520 level, accompanied with bigger volume 1.5bil shares traded. It again concludes that the retailers are coming back to the market to create the excitement - which is the right time for the undervalue stocks and the small to mid cap stocks to play the catch up game. It is simply because the bluechips are mostly price in and hitting the ceiling at the moment. Traditionally, a super bull market have to finished by the speculate play, which is the last phase of a bull trend. Subsequently, the market might need to take a breather for some healthy correction. I believe the bull market may last until Jan/Feb 2011, which is quite optimistic at this moment, and there have no negative indicators showing the market may crash anytime soon.

For the hunters, please have a look at these counters:

• Plantation: United plantation, Tsh, Cepat, Th plant.
• Oil & gas : Kencana, Sapcres, Dayang.
• Steel : Lionind, Ann Joo.
• GLC : UEMland, Mrcb, SimeDarby