Financial freedom and early retirement are becoming hot topics in this very competitive world. Most of us are working hard to achieve financial freedom in our early age. I personally prefer to venture into Financial market simply because of several reasons like it reflects global economy financial status, and most of the millionaires / billionaires are borned in financial market especially after the crisis. They succeed and they see the potential and opportunity there, so why not us?
Personal sharing of Global financial investment
1. Ways to prosper from the Global financial market
2. Global financial market review & information
3. Global stock market analysis
4. Understanding the importance of Global financial system towards us
Sunday, May 29, 2011
與時拼經.佈局下半年投資 馬股6月或重現生機
我國當然也是“一份子”,身處“高通脹、利率趨升”的大環境,國家經濟發展的指標之一馬股市,在上半年也給予“很大”反應,走勢極度“耍情緒”。
不過,這一切看似都在資本投資規劃師葉大衛的掌握中,年初他測出,今年外圍多災多難,比較寒冷和多雨水,小心曇花一現的現象。
果然,回顧富馬隆綜指自1月份衝高至1574.49點歷史高點后,迄今接近打回原形,回落到去年底水平。
距離下半年僅一個月,投資者是時候佈署下半年策略。
指數運行看,6月份富馬隆綜指將在月初謹慎反彈,但很快將在20至24日出現調整,投資者要在這5天把握佈局機會,享受7月份、8月份和9月份、下半年的漲潮!
葉大衛年初接受《中國報》專訪時說,馬股今年的數字密碼是3、6、9,全年最敏感和變盤月份。
當時他指出,3月最有可能變盤的週期是7日至10日,及20日至23日。
事實確是如此,富馬隆綜指3月1日先以高漲10.99點打開當月走勢,之后在10日、11日、14日和15日,連續4個交易日走低,累積跌幅39.55點。
一輪“小跌潮”后,迎來令人意外的“大漲潮”,3月16日至31日合計漲幅60.99點,最后以1545.13點結束月份走勢,全月漲了42.89點。
若投資者及時在下跌的4個交易日間補貨,再于月底前出貨,短短半個月已有賺幅。
調整也是好時機
如今,葉大衛再為馬股下半年把脈,根據大自然生態,馬股6月份將出現3月份的格局,出現幾率將高達70%。
“6月初將呈反彈衝高走勢,在20日至24日稍作休息晉盤整期,這時正是投資者需要佈局,以進入7月份、8月份和9月份的漲潮。”
但他也提醒投資者,若6月份馬股未有調整,往后的3個月份將面臨下行,需加倍小心。
葉大衛說,最近走勢都在1490點支撐水平上波動,表現穩定。如果在6月份不幸跌破,將有明顯的跌勢。
“不過,對未來可能的調整格局,也不必過于悲觀,恰好造就進場買股的大好時機。”
他重申,今年不是投資年,進場機會不多,時間非常短速,要懂得把握,但要有明確的投資策略。
漲潮不持久虛有吐氣
上半年馬股已呈“兔”氣揚眉,和“兔”飛猛進格局,投資者下半年要引以為鑑,小心為上。
葉大衛2月份以“兔”氣揚眉,和“兔”飛猛進,形容今年的馬股。
“吐”氣揚眉除了是“吉祥話”,也可解讀為,馬股漲潮是一口虛有和不實際的“吐氣”。
“突”飛猛進,表示“突然”走高的股市,不能夠持久。
翻看今年首5個月的走勢,發現富馬隆綜指自1月17日漲至歷史新高1574.49點后,往后多半起伏不定,截至5月20日,指數僅稍比去年封關水平高出22.12點,相較漲幅一度達到55.58點。
此外,1月3日至7日連續5個交易日創下史上新高,可是在18日至26日以6連跌作回禮。
這反映當時的漲勢是虛有的“吐氣”,不持久。
漲交投愈弱市值愈高
過去4個月出現“奇怪”的現象,大盤成交量連月下跌,馬股市值則增加中。
數據顯示,1月份馬股總成交量達406億8650萬股,2月份降至315億643萬股,3月份減至298億8100萬股,4月份再減到272億9023萬股,成交量連續4個月萎縮。
然而,馬股市值卻逐漸攀升,1月份達1兆2839億8000萬令吉,2月份稍回落至1兆2567億1000萬令吉,3月份增至1兆3109億9000萬令吉,4月份穩定在1兆3107億9000萬令吉。
數據反映,即使1月份的成交量是最龐大,馬股市值也不及4月份“交投低靡”之時。
這表示,當外圍因素不確定時,投資者皆改變投資策略,將資金轉向特定藍籌股或表現穩定的股項,集中投資,部份股的股價因而受到刺激,帶動整體市值向上。
令吉的運勢今年將走盡,明年要把舞台讓給美元
葉大衛說,令吉上半年衝破3.00水平,若漲勢持續,並非好事,需加以控制。
“早前,令吉成功敲破2.90,接著頂多是小刀踞大樹嘗試上敲2.80,惟這股‘氣息’不會持久。”
他指出,若令吉要持續升值,必須要在今年“完事”,皆因明年將是美元上場的一年,美元會走強,進而影響令吉表現。
在通脹壓力催化,加上市場臆測國家銀行將通過升息克制通脹,帶動令吉兌美元匯率在4月25日闊別13年后,首次升破3水平。
這是1997/98年亞洲金融風暴,以及令吉與美元脫鉤以來,令吉首次突破3。
隨著國行提前在5月5日調高隔夜官方利率(OPR)至3%后,馬上終止市場消息炒作,令吉隨之下跌至3以上,走勢曇花一現。
葉大衛說,如果令吉今年衝高無果,將在年底走近上升尾聲。
原產品短暫回落長期看俏
今年是原產品的“陽年”,價格目前只是暫時走下波,很快將恢復氣勢如虹。
自日本爆發嚴重地震后,原油價格過去數週大幅下跌,整體方向變不確定,增加走勢的波動。
紐約原油期貨價格在5月2日創下每桶近115美元(約345令吉)后,直線下滑,單是5月份已挫跌近13%,徘徊90美元(約270令吉)水平多時。
由于美國將進入夏季開車季節,原油需求自然增加,帶動7月份原油期貨價格在5月20日重新站上100美元(約300令吉)。
這就是葉大衛所指的,要漲跑不了,要跌逃不了。
他說,今年是原產品走紅的一年,即使間中受一些外圍因素影響,也將迅速調整過來,出現力彈。
“原產品的泡沫週期,是否爆破,2012年是關鍵年;金價油價或在這年‘破功’。”
魚的投資策略 買在魚尾賣在魚頭
葉大衛說,股票投資就像買魚,並奉勸不是人人有機會吃“魚頭”,貪心的話一個不小心會隨時啃到。
他在授教魚的投資策略時說,以散戶的最愛IOI集團(IOICORP,1961,主要板種植)為例,2009年2月因遠期外匯(foreign exchange forwards)操作不當蒙受龐大外匯虧損時,公司股價寫歷史低點,每股約2令吉,當時投資者是買在“魚尾”。
“股價漲至逾4令吉,稱之魚身,而早前高漲到6令吉,則是魚頭部位。”
他指出,不是所有人會吃“魚頭”,這表示要在最高價脫手很難;如果明知道無法啃魚頭,就應在“魚身”時安全脫售。
葉大衛說,大豆油和原產品價格近期回跌,故拖累IOI集團,此現象告訴投資者可分批買入,先在5月份的5.10令吉價位買進,再于6月份的4.20至4.30令吉,買進第二批。
2012非末日 是投資年
2012年不是世界末日,而是投資好年!
葉大衛說,今年的投資比較難佈署,漲勢和跌勢不明顯且短暫,僅數天時間供“下手”,使今年的投資策略是不能久留,不能眷戀,要適時“放手”,待另一時機出現時再“出手”。
眼明手快的投資者,自在今年有斬獲,若反應較慢的投資者,也無需失望,可寄望來年。
他指出,市場都談論2012年是世界末日,相反明年會是投資大年,將出現明顯的進場和出場格局。
“一年下來會有幾個月段大幅下跌(進場),之后再大力反彈(退場),過程比較長,不及今年必須數天內補貨。”
葉大衛是利用“東方訣數”,一套涵蓋“密碼”、“實戰”、“管理”和“修為”四大層面的全面投資技術。
Source: Chinapress (28/5/11)
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Case Study: Robert Kuok's Legend - PPB Group Bhd
2. PPB's flour milling arm FFM Group - The biggest Flour market player in Malaysia and is expanding aggressively locally and established Flour biz in Indonesia in year 2009 with small market share, plan to expand and target of 5%-10% Indonesia market share means 10% of 240mil Indonesia population = 100% malaysia population.
3. PPB plans to aggressively expanding the flour biz locally, Indonesia, Vietnam and China in future.
4. PPB is establishing the "Bread" business in near term.
Comments:
Thursday, February 17, 2011
CENSOF - The key software provider & support for government
Strong & Stable Clientele
Pioneer among BUMI IPO companies
Good investment opportunity
Friday, February 11, 2011
Market is under healthy correction - Clear all holding position & stay sideline for next bargain chance
Immediate Trading Strategy
Immediate support level: 1,480, 1,450, 1,400.
Sunday, January 23, 2011
CNY Mood - Stay Sideline & Focus on CNY Celebration
Arrival of High Inflation
- The unbalance of economy recovery globally, where the emerging market are growing too fast, pushing all the properties & commodities resources flying sky high - Thanks to the hot money flowing in from US & EU countries.
- The most unexpected bad weather - Causing the commodites especially the agriculture prices fly, and creating the high inflation.
- Most comsumers consume 40% of their expenses in food & petrol- High food & petrol price may hurt the consumers spending desire.
Global worries
- The uncertainty in US economy recovery - Having the risk of losing momentum - Still require the government stimulus package which is still on going.
- The EU soverign debt issue - The worry and focus on PIIGS may impact the EU and global economies.
CNY Mood - Stay sideline & focus on CNY celebration
2011 CNY is just around the corner, which is in another 1.5 weeks to go, most investors or retailers are taking profit and withdraw it for CNY preparation. This is quite normal as most people would not wish to stay worry while celebration CNY. Furthermore, most of the stocks in Malaysia & globally have been experienced quite a fruitful bull run in 1H Jan 2011. People can just easily collect the minimum of 10-30% profit and back for CNY holidays! Subsequently, the overall market may enter into a quiet trading season again through out the CNY period, thus I strongly recommended just let's go for the CNY celebration & wish everyones has a prosperoous year ahead! Happy Chinese New Year!
Monday, January 17, 2011
Facebook group created
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Stock Investment Portfolio Review, Outlook & Strategy - 14012011
Top Picks within Favourite Stocks List
2. KimLun & Cypark
Both of these stocks are considered the new players among the listed companies. The same characteristics between these companies are they have good management team and stand in an advantage position to be benefited directly from the government Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) such as environmental friendly and MRT projects which have just announced recently.
3. Maybank, CIMB, RHBCAP, PBBank
With the combination of several factors like stable economy growth, increase of interest rate prospect, aggressive business acquisition and investment abroad among the finance industry, and together with a large amount of money spend by the government in 10MP, the Banking playsers are definitely one of the main beneficiary.
4. Sapcres, Kencana, Dialog, Pchem, PetDag
Oil & gas sector is one of the main beneficiary which has attracted the government focus. It is anticipated that a lot of giant projects will be tendered out and began in the near future.
Overall Market Outlook
The KLCI stock market looks attractive at the current 1570 level and most analysts and investors are confident with the market performance and have revised 2011 target at 1700 level. Nevertheless, it is very much depends on the global economy recovery too. I would anticipate the global market may continue to recover and the global equity bull run would at least continue the uptrend until the end of 1st half 2011, then follow by a more severe type of retracement in the beginning of 2nd half 2011.
Trading strategy
Sell into Strength, Buy on weakness.
Favourite Stocks Recommendations
Finance: Maybank, CIMB, RHBCAP, PBBank.
Consumer: CI Holdings, GuanChg, TWS, QL,
Construction: Kimlun, Sunway, Gamuda, Wct.
Healthcare: KPJ.
Plantation: BStead, TDM, THPlant, TWSPlant, TSH.
Trading/services: Analabs, Kfima, QSR.
Gaming: Genting.
Telecommunication: Axiata, Digi.
Environmental: Cypark.
Oil & Gas: Kencana, Pchem, PETDag.
Industrial: Ajiya, CanOne, DRBhicom, Daibochi, HPI, LIONind.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
HapSeng - "Burst" of the rumours / over speculated
Recent stock movement and news
- The stock super bull uptrend was not really supported by the strong growth of the business revenue and profit generated in the past quarters.
- The stock has shot up from RM3.00 to RM7.52 which is more than 100% in 3months time, without any major pull back or profit taking activity kicks in. The "Bull" may has exhausted after strong and long run.
- The stock may trade in over value condition as the growth in stock price has way overrun the business growth.
- The stock has been trading in the overbought zone in RSI data since Oct 2010 without easing off, a stock is not possible to continue staying in the overbought zone forever, thus, it has been in the very unhealthy condition.
- The stock is over manipulated as it is not fundamentally sound anymore, it would be healthy to have some short term retreatment.
Conclusion
Hap Seng Bonus issue has way disappointed the investors as the privatisation case might not be happening in the near future anymore. Most investors have made handsome profit in Hap Seng, thus many of them still willing to sell and cut profit at current level, creating more heavy selling activity happening now.
Learning Curve
If a stock behave abnormally and price has changed directly suddenly and retreat more severe compare to normal condition, while majority of other stocks are still holding well or doing good. It shows that the stock is sending the message to the investors that "I AM SICK, PLEASE AWAY FROM ME!". In Hap Seng case, the smarter investors would have cut the profit on 10/1/11 or latest 11/1/11 just before it is too late!
Saturday, January 8, 2011
KLCI Market Review, Outlook & strategy - 08012011
Technical Commentary
Technical Indicators
MACD: Bullish (Golden-cross signal).
KLCI above 50MA, 100MA & 200MA level: Bullish.
RSI stays at 80 level: Bullish, a little overbought.
Support level
1550, 1530, 1524.
Resistance level
1580, 1600.
Trading Strategy
Take profit & cutting down stock holding level to 30% stocks vs 70% cash. Stay sideline, Sell into Strength, Bargain hunting on good fundamental stocks when market dips again.
Favourite Stocks Recommendations
Finance: Maybank, CIMB, RHBCAP, PBB.
Consumer: CI Holdings, GuanChg, TWS, QL,
Construction: Kimlun, Sunway, Gamuda, Wct.
Healthcare: KPJ, Faber.
Plantation: BStead, TDM, THPlant, TWSPlant, TSH.
Trading/services: Analabs, Kfima, QSR.
Gaming: Genting.
Telecommunication: Axiata, Digi.
Environmental: Cypark.
Oil & Gas: Kencana, Pchem, PETDag.
Industrial: Ajiya, CanOne, DRBhicom, Daibochi, HPI, LIONind.
Bonus & Free Warrant issue ex-date in early Feb 2011
Further push towards Bonus issue
With the Bonus & Free Warrant issue's ex-date fixed and to be carried out on 10th Feb 2011, the stock is anticipated to attract more buyers to bargain before the Bonus issue ex-date. The investors will be benefited from the free warrant issue directly.
Conclusion
It is still a strong buy call and it would be smarter to buy on dips.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
KLCI 2011 Market Outlook & Strategy - "Perfect Super Bull Cycle"
Fundamental Commentary
The KLCI index was trading in a tight range between 1480 to 1530 level in Dec 2010 as anticipated. The market volume has reduced to below 1.0bil due to the year end holiday mood and early book closing by most of the fund managers. Most analysts feel more optimistic and confident with the current economy situation, and have upgraded the market outlook for the 1st half 2011. This was resulted by the convincing economic results improvement in global markets especially in US.
Technical Commentary
The KLCI index has successfully broken-out the upper line of "Symmetrical Triangle". This provides a near term bullish signal to the near term market outlook. Nevertheless, it is importance for the KLCI index to break the strong resistance at 1530 level in order to continue the market rally in year 2011. The bullish market outlook is maintained as long as the KLCI stays above the strong support at 1480 level.
Technical Indicators
Candlestick chart pattern 1: Bearish Engulfing pattern builded on 30th Dec 2010.
KLCI above 50MA, 100MA & 200MA level: Bullish.
RSI stays at 50 level: Neutral.
Support level
Resistance level
Near Term Outlook (1st - Half 2011)
With the current bullish news that the global economy recovery is gaining momentum as well as the improvement in consumer confidence, the global markets shall continue the Super Bull run in the 1st & 2nd quarter 2011. The global countries governments will definitely work harder to ensure the economy recovery is on path. Thus, the near-term outlook for the stock markets are fairly bullish. The undervalue mid-cap to small-cap may again outperform the index link counters in near term.
Long Term Outlook (2nd-Half 2011)
With the expiration of $600bil stimulus package in June 2011 which was implemented in US last year, the sustainability of economy recovery will be tested & it would be a huge challenge for it to move forward then. Apart from that, the emerging markets will also face the challenge to calm down the overheated economic situation and high inflation issue in 2011. Subsequently, they have to raise the interest rates to tackle the high inflation issue. This may also impact the stock market performance directly.
Besides, the EU sovereign debt problem, war threat & political tension between North Korea & South Korea, china economy softening, and emerging properties bubble issues may continue ruin the global economy recovery in the 2nd half 2011. The equity and commodities markets are anticipated revert into bear market due to the softening economy recovery in 2nd half 2011. Thus, it would be a safe & smart decision to clear all the stock holding position or probably just holding the mininum position before entering in 2nd half 2011.
Potential Positive/Bullish News & Incidents
- Malaysia General Election in 1st-Half 2011.
- Huge Infrastructure development project like "MRT" worth RM35bil to start construction in July 2011.
- Continuation of further positive 6% yearly GDP growth.
- Maintaining Low interest rate to support economy growth.
- High commodities prices benefit Oil & gas, metals and plantation industries.
- US $600bil stimulus package expiration in June 2011 continue creating in-flow money to Equity & Property markets.
- Further strengthening of global economy recovery especially in US & EU.
Risks
Trading Strategy
1st-Half 2011: Bargain hunting on good fundamental stocks into market weakness.
2nd-Half 2011: Clear/Hold minimum stock position.
Environmental: Cypark.
Oil & Gas: Kencana, Pchem, PETDag.
Industrial: Ajiya, CanOne, DRBhicom, Daibochi, Scientx, HPI, LIONind.